OVER / UNDER
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Next government of the United Kingdom?

Price history — Labour majority

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

6¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Sun 5/31Mon 6/1Tue 6/2Wed 6/3TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Reform UK minority9¢
Reform UK majority9¢
Reform UK minority + Conservative support9¢
Labour majority★ BEST6¢
Labour, Liberal Democrat, and Green coalition4¢
Labour minority4¢
Labour and Liberal Democrat coalition4¢
Reform UK and Conservative coalition3¢
Conservative minority3¢
Conservative minority + Reform UK support3¢
Labour minority + Liberal Democrat support3¢
Labour minority + LD/Green/SNP/Plaid support3¢
Conservative majority2¢
Labour minority + SNP support1¢
Reform UK, Conservative, and DUP coalition1¢
Conservative minority + DUP support1¢
Conservative and Liberal Democrat coalition1¢
Labour minority + Green support1¢
Reform UK minority + DUP support1¢
Kalshi • Volume: 1.8K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2030-01-01
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Labour majority
at 6¢
Price gap
Kalshi6¢
→
OU's fair26¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 16×
Confidence
Moderate

Recent polling from May 2026 indicates a significant surge for Reform UK that has eroded the previous Labour majority dominance while leaving them as the most likely largest party.

Wide edge+20¢
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.