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Which party will win the next UK general election?

Price history — Reform party

Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

40¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24Mon 5/25TODAY
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
Reform party★ BEST40¢
Labour party24¢
Conservative party14¢
Restore Britain party9¢
Green party4¢
Liberal Democratic party1¢
Your Party0¢
Bruv party0¢
Kalshi • Volume: 212.2K contracts • Updated 30m agoCloses: 2029-08-31
Kalshi · Elections
OU's Pick
YES · Reform party
at 40¢
Price gap
Kalshi40¢
→
OU's fair45¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 2.5×
Confidence
Moderate

Polling data from April 2026 indicates a Reform party minority is the most probable outcome for the upcoming general election.

Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.