US nonfarm payrolls for May 2026
Price history — Above -40K
Last 7 days of market YES price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
96¢
92¢
86¢
81¢
74¢
47¢
37¢
27¢
17¢
9¢
8¢
6¢
4¢
3¢
1¢
Kalshi • Volume: 27.3K contracts • Updated 3m agoCloses: 2026-06-05 (8d)
Kalshi · Economics
OU's Pick
YES · Above -40K
at 96¢
Price gap
Kalshi96¢
→OU's fair98¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 1.0×
Confidence
Moderate
April 2026 payroll growth of 115k and stable Fed communications suggest the labor market remains far from the significant contraction required to drop below -40k.
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.