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KXWARMING-50 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXWARMING-50 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXWARMING-50 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXWARMING-50 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXWARMING-50 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★ KXWARMING-50 ★ KALSHI ★ YES/NO ★

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Price history — Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).

24¢0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢Tue 5/19Wed 5/20Thu 5/21Fri 5/22Sat 5/23Sun 5/24TODAY
market YES fair range
Market price
YES76¢ (76%)
NO24¢ (24%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 13.4K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2050-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 24¢ · pays 4.2×
Price gap
Kalshi24¢
OU's fair60¢
+36¢ underpriced · pays 4.2×
Confidence
Moderate

Current climate models and UN reports indicate that while 1.5C is being reached now, the 2C threshold is projected for the mid-century under most moderate emission scenarios.

Wide edge+36¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.