Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Price history — Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES76¢ (76%)
NO24¢ (24%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 13.4K contracts • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2050-01-01
Kalshi · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 24¢ · pays 4.2×
Price gap
Kalshi24¢
→OU's fair60¢
+36¢ underpriced · pays 4.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Current climate models and UN reports indicate that while 1.5C is being reached now, the 2C threshold is projected for the mid-century under most moderate emission scenarios.
Wide edge+36¢
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.