Will a country with no prior World Cup victories win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Price history — Will a country with no prior World Cup victories win the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?
Last 7 days of market NO price (blue) with the fair-price range (orange).
━ market YES▬ fair range
Market price
YES27¢ (27%)
NO73¢ (73%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Kalshi • Volume: 19.7K contracts • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-08-03
Kalshi · Sports
OU's Pick
YES at 27¢ · pays 3.7×
Price gap
Kalshi27¢
→OU's fair35¢
+8¢ underpriced · pays 3.7×
Confidence
Moderate
Only eight nations have ever won the World Cup and the expanded 48-team format increases the statistical likelihood of a first-time champion emerging from a deeper field.
Off market consensus
Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.