Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES82¢ (82%)
NO18¢ (18%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $37.5K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 18¢ · pays 5.6×
Price gap
Polymarket18¢
→OU's fair38¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 5.6×
Confidence
Moderate
Search results indicate the House already passed legislation to extend the ACA tax credits which contradicts the first condition of this dual-outcome contract.
Wide edge+20¢
Off market consensus
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