Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES12¢ (12%)
NO88¢ (88%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $56.8K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
YES at 12¢ · pays 8.7×
Price gap
Polymarket12¢
→OU's fair32¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 8.7×
Confidence
Moderate
Ahmed al-Sharaa transitioned from rebel leader to president in early 2025 and remains in power as of May 2026 despite the inherent instability of the post-revolutionary period.
Wide edge+20¢
Off market consensus
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