Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES21¢ (21%)
NO79¢ (79%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $63.4K • Updated 6m agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 79¢ · pays 1.3×
Price gap
Polymarket79¢
→OU's fair85¢
+6¢ underpriced · pays 1.3×
Confidence
Moderate
Wikipedia and news snippets confirm two federal shutdowns already occurred in 2026 but Democratic candidates currently lead in fundraising and cash on hand for the House cycle.
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