OVER / UNDER
brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory ★ POLYMARKET ★ MULTI ★ brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory ★ POLYMARKET ★ MULTI ★ brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory ★ POLYMARKET ★ MULTI ★ brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory ★ POLYMARKET ★ MULTI ★ brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory ★ POLYMARKET ★ MULTI ★ brazil-presidential-election-first-round-margin-of-victory ★ POLYMARKET ★ MULTI ★

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

Not enough history yet for a chart.
New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
Market price
Lula da Silva <5%44¢
Lula da Silva 5-10%21¢
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%12¢
Other10¢
Lula da Silva 10-15%★ BEST7¢
Renan Santos Victory6¢
Lula da Silva 15%+4¢
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%2¢
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+2¢
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory1¢
Ratinho Júnior Victory0¢
Polymarket • Volume: $236K • Updated 6m agoCloses: 2026-10-04
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Lula da Silva 10-15%
at 7¢
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→
OU's fair6¢
−1¢ overpriced · pays 15×
Confidence
Low

Historical data and current polling suggest a highly competitive environment where a specific narrow margin of victory is statistically unlikely to occur.

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