Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES93¢ (93%)
NO7¢ (7%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $15.6K • Updated 16m agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 7¢ · pays 13×
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→OU's fair28¢
+21¢ underpriced · pays 13×
Confidence
Moderate
California's 1st District is a solidly Republican seat represented by Doug LaMalfa and is not considered a competitive target for Democrats in the 2026 cycle.
Wide edge+21¢
Off market consensus
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