Will Mike Thompson advance from the CA-04 primary election?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES93¢ (93%)
NO7¢ (7%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $7.4K • Updated 18m agoCloses: 2026-06-02 (8d)
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 7¢ · pays 14×
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→OU's fair8¢
+1¢ underpriced · pays 14×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Mike Thompson is a long-serving representative in a district with a strong partisan lean that favors his party according to the Cook Political Report.
Off market consensus
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