Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES11¢ (11%)
NO89¢ (89%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $7.4K • Updated 6m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Science and Technology
OU's Pick
NO at 90¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Polymarket90¢
→OU's fair90¢
Confidence
Low
Historical leaderboard gains suggest a score of 1650 requires a significant generational leap that has not yet been demonstrated by current frontier model updates.
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