Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES27¢ (27%)
NO73¢ (73%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $2.6K • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-09-30
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
YES at 27¢ · pays 3.7×
Price gap
Polymarket27¢
→OU's fair30¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 3.7×
Confidence
Moderate
Luxon survived a National Party caucus vote in April 2026 and maintains his position as Prime Minister despite persistent leadership speculation.
Off market consensus
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