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Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
de la Espriella Win28¢
Cepeda Castro 10-15%25¢
Cepeda Castro 0-5%20¢
Cepeda Castro 5-10%18¢
Cepeda Castro 15-20%9¢
Cepeda Castro 20%+3¢
Valencia Win0¢
Other★ BEST0¢
Polymarket • Volume: $40.5K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-05-31 (6d)
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · Other
at 0¢
Price gap
Polymarket
OU's fair20¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 500×
Confidence
Moderate

Recent polling shows a narrow four point gap between the leading candidates which makes a margin of victory between ten and fifteen percent highly unlikely.

Wide edge+20¢
Closes in6d 0h
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