European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES1¢ (1%)
NO99¢ (99%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $157.4K • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-06-30 (26d)
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 1¢ · pays 71×
Price gap
Polymarket1¢
→OU's fair95¢
+94¢ underpriced · pays 71×
Confidence
Moderate
The European Union and Ukraine reached an agreement in principle on security commitments and trade reviews as of June 2025 with formal frameworks established for 2026.
Wide edge+94¢
Off market consensus
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