Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES2¢ (2%)
NO98¢ (98%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $6K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-05-31 (4d)
Polymarket · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
YES at 2¢ · pays 53×
Price gap
Polymarket2¢
→OU's fair15¢
+13¢ underpriced · pays 53×
Confidence
Moderate
The USGS reports one M6.9 earthquake already occurred on May 25 and the global average of eleven M5.5+ events per week makes staying under the limit of three very unlikely.
Wide edge+13¢
Closes in4d 6h
Off market consensus
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