Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES72¢ (72%)
NO28¢ (28%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $1.5K • Updated 4h agoCloses:
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 72¢ · pays 1.4×
Price gap
Polymarket72¢
→OU's fair82¢
+10¢ underpriced · pays 1.4×
Confidence
Moderate
Democratic Senate incumbents rarely lose primary elections and FEC data shows the 2026 class maintains significant fundraising advantages over potential challengers.
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