Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

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Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price

YES2¢ (2%)

NO98¢ (98%)

Latest refresh · prices in cents

Polymarket • Volume: $29.9K • Updated 6m agoCloses: 2026-12-31

Polymarket · General

OU's Pick

NO at 98¢ · pays 1.0×

Price gap

Polymarket98¢

→

OU's fair98¢

Confidence

Low

Historical data shows that VEI 4 or higher eruptions occur on average about once or twice per year making exactly three a statistically less likely outcome.

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