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How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
4-650¢
7-920¢
>154¢
10-122¢
<3★ BEST1¢
13-150¢
Polymarket • Volume: $59K • Updated 25m agoCloses:
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · <3
at 1¢
Price gap
Polymarket1¢
→
OU's fair1¢
Confidence
Low

Historical data shows that very few House incumbents typically lose their primary elections during a midterm cycle.

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