Will Republican Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
Not enough history yet for a chart.
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New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
Market price
YES9¢ (9%)
NO91¢ (91%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $2.4K • Updated 2h agoCloses:
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 9¢ · pays 11×
Price gap
Polymarket9¢
→OU's fair29¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 11×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Republican senators typically win their primaries but high fundraising totals for several challengers suggest potential vulnerability in a few key states.
Wide edge+20¢
Off market consensus
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