Will fewer than 200 tornadoes occur in the United States in May 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES98¢ (98%)
NO2¢ (2%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $1.5K • Updated 5h agoCloses: 2026-06-08 (4d)
Polymarket · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 2¢ · pays 53×
Price gap
Polymarket2¢
→OU's fair2¢
Confidence
Low
Historical May tornado counts vary widely and no specific 2026 data is available to confirm the final NCEI count before the June 8 report release.
Closes in3d 20h
Off market consensus
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