Will the Republican Party win the IL-04 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES3¢ (3%)
NO97¢ (97%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $14.6K • Updated 53m agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 3¢ · pays 36×
Price gap
Polymarket3¢
→OU's fair5¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 36×
Confidence
Moderate
Illinois's 4th Congressional District is a heavily Democratic stronghold that has consistently elected Democratic representatives by overwhelming margins for decades.
Off market consensus
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