Will the Democratic Party win the IL-06 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES93¢ (93%)
NO7¢ (7%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $10.3K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 7¢ · pays 14×
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→OU's fair12¢
+5¢ underpriced · pays 14×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten is running for reelection in a district that has historically favored Democratic candidates by significant margins.
Off market consensus
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