Iran leadership change by...?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
31¢
10¢
3¢
0¢
Polymarket • Volume: $7M • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES · December 31
at 31¢
Price gap
Polymarket31¢
→OU's fair10¢
−21¢ overpriced · pays 3.3×
Confidence
Low
Internal pressures and reports of a 2026 conflict suggest a higher probability of leadership transition by the end of the year compared to immediate dates.
Wide edge+21¢
High volume$139k
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