Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES18¢ (18%)
NO82¢ (82%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $169.1K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 82¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Polymarket82¢
→OU's fair92¢
+10¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Lebanon's Prime Minister has explicitly rejected normalization as a goal and the ongoing conflict with Hezbollah makes diplomatic recognition highly unlikely by the deadline.
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