Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES18¢ (18%)
NO82¢ (82%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $12.6K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-07-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 83¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Polymarket83¢
→OU's fair85¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Ongoing military expansion and the lack of a ceasefire agreement make a full withdrawal of ground forces by the specified date unlikely.
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