Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
Not enough history yet for a chart.
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Market price
YES9¢ (9%)
NO91¢ (91%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $10.1K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Climate and Weather
OU's Pick
NO at 92¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Polymarket92¢
→OU's fair98¢
+6¢ underpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate
The USGS Earthquake Catalog shows zero earthquakes of this magnitude in California for the current year and the historical base rate for such events in Los Angeles is extremely low.
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