Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES14¢ (14%)
NO86¢ (86%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $93.1K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2027-03-31
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
NO at 86¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Polymarket86¢
→OU's fair98¢
+12¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
Historical data from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program shows that VEI 6 eruptions occur on average only once every few decades.
Wide edge+12¢
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