Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES2¢ (2%)
NO98¢ (98%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $3.2K • Updated 10m agoCloses: 2026-06-30 (24d)
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
YES at 2¢ · pays 67×
Price gap
Polymarket2¢
→OU's fair53¢
+51¢ underpriced · pays 67×
Confidence
Moderate
The CDC reports 2030 confirmed measles cases as of June 4 2026 with 26 days remaining in the month to reach the 2150 threshold.
Wide edge+51¢
Off market consensus
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