Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

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Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price

↑4k32¢

↑7.5k13¢

Polymarket • Volume: $346.3K • Updated 6h agoCloses: 2026-12-31

Polymarket · General

OU's Pick

YES · ↑4k

at 32¢

Price gap

Polymarket32¢

→

OU's fair15¢

−17¢ overpriced · pays 3.2×

Confidence

Moderate

Current reports show 1487 cases by mid-May 2026 which puts the annual trajectory on pace to exceed 3000 but makes higher thresholds like 7500 or 12500 statistically unlikely.

Wide edge+17¢

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