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Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Market price history

Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.

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Market price
Andy Burnham45¢
No Next PM in 2026★ BEST28¢
Angela Rayner10¢
Ed Miliband7¢
Wes Streeting5¢
Al Carns3¢
Yvette Cooper1¢
Shabana Mahmood1¢
Rachel Reeves1¢
Nigel Farage1¢
Kemi Badenoch0¢
David Lammy0¢
Boris Johnson0¢
James Cleverly0¢
Lucy Powell0¢
Rupert Lowe0¢
Darren Jones0¢
Ed Davey0¢
Robert Jenrick0¢
Bridget Phillipson0¢
John Healey0¢
Person I0¢
Person AE0¢
Person AJ0¢
Person T0¢
Person AN0¢
Person C0¢
Person E0¢
Person J0¢
Person N0¢
Person Z0¢
Person G0¢
Person H0¢
Person V0¢
Person AC0¢
Person AM0¢
Person O0¢
Person AI0¢
Other0¢
Person U0¢
Person AF0¢
Person AH0¢
Person AK0¢
Person D0¢
Person K0¢
Person L0¢
Person AD0¢
Person AL0¢
Person P0¢
Person Q0¢
Person AA0¢
Person AB0¢
Person M0¢
Person R0¢
Person S0¢
Person W0¢
Person X0¢
Person B0¢
Person F0¢
Person Y0¢
Person AG0¢
Polymarket • Volume: $8.1M • Updated 19m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · General
OU's Pick
YES · No Next PM in 2026
at 28¢
Price gap
Polymarket28¢
→
OU's fair49¢
+21¢ underpriced · pays 3.5×
Confidence
Moderate

Reports of a 2026 leadership crisis suggest instability but the high bar for a formal change in Prime Minister makes a status quo outcome the most probable scenario.

Wide edge+21¢
High volume$44k
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