Will the Democratic Party win the NM-01 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES92¢ (92%)
NO8¢ (8%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $15.7K • Updated 16m agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 8¢ · pays 12×
Price gap
Polymarket8¢
→OU's fair12¢
+4¢ underpriced · pays 12×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Melanie Stansbury maintains a strong structural advantage in a district that has consistently favored Democratic candidates by double digits in recent cycles.
Off market consensus
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