Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
Not enough history yet for a chart.
New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
Market price
YES71¢ (71%)
NO29¢ (29%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $13.9K • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 71¢ · pays 1.4×
Price gap
Polymarket71¢
→OU's fair92¢
+21¢ underpriced · pays 1.4×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Republican Elise Stefanik represents this solid Republican district which has not elected a Democrat in over a decade.
Wide edge+21¢
Affiliate link — we may earn a commission. Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.