Will the Republican Party win the PA-04 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES7¢ (7%)
NO93¢ (93%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $7K • Updated 23m agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 7¢ · pays 15×
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→OU's fair90¢
+83¢ underpriced · pays 15×
Confidence
Moderate
Pennsylvania's 4th District is a strongly Democratic-leaning seat that has consistently elected Democratic representatives by wide margins in recent election cycles.
Wide edge+83¢
Off market consensus
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