Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
Not enough history yet for a chart.
New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
Market price
YES3¢ (3%)
NO97¢ (97%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $1.9M • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-06-30
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 3¢ · pays 37×
Price gap
Polymarket3¢
→OU's fair5¢
+2¢ underpriced · pays 37×
Confidence
Low
European nations historically favor diplomatic and economic sanctions over direct military strikes against Iran and no current evidence suggests a shift to kinetic action.
High volume$230k
Off market consensus
Affiliate link — we may earn a commission. Not financial advice. For informational purposes only. Prediction markets involve risk of loss. AI may contain errors.