Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES4¢ (4%)
NO96¢ (96%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $7K • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-05-31 (6d)
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 4¢ · pays 25×
Price gap
Polymarket4¢
→OU's fair24¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 25×
Confidence
Moderate
Wikipedia reports that Russia seized the city of Toretsk on August 7, 2025, which is well before the May 31, 2026 deadline specified in the contract.
Wide edge+20¢
Closes in6d 2h
Off market consensus
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