Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES29¢ (29%)
NO71¢ (71%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $108.4K • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Science and Technology
OU's Pick
YES at 29¢ · pays 3.4×
Price gap
Polymarket29¢
→OU's fair49¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 3.4×
Confidence
Moderate
SpaceX has already completed 12 launches by May 2026 with 7 successes and maintains a high launch cadence that supports reaching the 5-6 success threshold by year end.
Wide edge+20¢
Off market consensus
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