Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES13¢ (13%)
NO87¢ (87%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $183K • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 88¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Polymarket88¢
→OU's fair88¢
Confidence
Moderate
Current intelligence reports suggest Russia is pivoting toward hybrid escalation and non-kinetic tactics rather than new conventional invasions for the 2026 calendar year.
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