Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES3¢ (3%)
NO97¢ (97%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $43.9M • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-06-30
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 3¢ · pays 39×
Price gap
Polymarket3¢
→OU's fair15¢
+12¢ underpriced · pays 39×
Confidence
Low
The search context mentions a 2026 war and regime change efforts but provides no evidence that the government has actually collapsed or is imminent to fall by the June deadline.
Wide edge+12¢
High volume$263k
Off market consensus
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