US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES40¢ (40%)
NO60¢ (60%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $2.7M • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-06-30
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 61¢ · pays 1.7×
Price gap
Polymarket61¢
→OU's fair85¢
+24¢ underpriced · pays 1.7×
Confidence
Moderate
Negotiations began in April 2025 but the short window until June 30 makes a final comprehensive agreement highly unlikely given historical diplomatic timelines.
Wide edge+24¢
High volume$182k
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