Will the Republican Party win the AZ-04 House seat?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
Not enough history yet for a chart.
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New points land on each refresh — check back shortly.
Market price
YES13¢ (13%)
NO87¢ (87%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $2.8K • Updated 2h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 13¢ · pays 7.7×
Price gap
Polymarket13¢
→OU's fair33¢
+20¢ underpriced · pays 7.7×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton represents this district and the Republican primary remains the focus of current political activity according to Wikipedia and search data.
Wide edge+20¢
Off market consensus
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