US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES56¢ (56%)
NO44¢ (44%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $15.2K • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
NO at 44¢ · pays 2.3×
Price gap
Polymarket44¢
→OU's fair66¢
+22¢ underpriced · pays 2.3×
Confidence
Moderate
While a ceasefire was established in April 2026 and negotiations are ongoing, the complexity of a permanent peace deal makes a resolution before the deadline unlikely.
Wide edge+22¢
Off market consensus
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