Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES87¢ (87%)
NO13¢ (13%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $2.8K • Updated 3h agoCloses: 2026-11-03
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 13¢ · pays 7.7×
Price gap
Polymarket13¢
→OU's fair13¢
Confidence
Low
Republicans are defending seats in states Trump won during a midterm cycle where the opposing party typically gains ground but incumbents in deep red states remain favored.
Off market consensus
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