Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES7¢ (7%)
NO93¢ (93%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $23.4M • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
YES at 7¢ · pays 13×
Price gap
Polymarket7¢
→OU's fair8¢
+1¢ underpriced · pays 13×
Confidence
Low
Current geopolitical analysis suggests China prefers gray-zone tactics and economic pressure over the extreme risks of a full-scale amphibious invasion in the near term.
High volume$335k
Off market consensus
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