Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES16¢ (16%)
NO84¢ (84%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $61.7K • Updated 4h agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · Financials
OU's Pick
NO at 84¢ · pays 1.2×
Price gap
Polymarket84¢
→OU's fair85¢
+1¢ underpriced · pays 1.2×
Confidence
Moderate
The CDU/CSU and SPD coalition agreement was finalized in April 2026 and both parties have strong incentives to maintain stability through the end of the year.
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