Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES8¢ (8%)
NO92¢ (92%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $18.8K • Updated 52m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 8¢ · pays 13×
Price gap
Polymarket8¢
→OU's fair25¢
+17¢ underpriced · pays 13×
Confidence
Moderate
Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in late 2023 and maintains strategic ambiguity regarding its nuclear testing thresholds.
Wide edge+17¢
Off market consensus
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