Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
44¢
34¢
10¢
1¢
Polymarket • Volume: $1.2M • Updated 29m agoCloses: 2026-12-31
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES · December 31
at 44¢
Price gap
Polymarket44¢
→OU's fair10¢
−34¢ overpriced · pays 2.3×
Confidence
Low
Ongoing military operations and the lack of diplomatic breakthroughs suggest a ceasefire is unlikely in the near term despite the extended timeframe.
Wide edge+34¢
High volume$80k
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