Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES3¢ (3%)
NO97¢ (97%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $114K • Updated 1h agoCloses: 2026-06-30 (30d)
Polymarket · World
OU's Pick
YES at 3¢ · pays 34×
Price gap
Polymarket3¢
→OU's fair15¢
+12¢ underpriced · pays 34×
Confidence
Moderate
While Russian drones violated Polish airspace in September 2025 and were intercepted by NATO jets, no evidence suggests a deliberate strike on Polish soil has occurred since.
Wide edge+12¢
Off market consensus
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