Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market NO price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES8¢ (8%)
NO92¢ (92%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $7.6K • Updated 15m agoCloses: 2026-10-04
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 92¢ · pays 1.1×
Price gap
Polymarket92¢
→OU's fair95¢
+3¢ underpriced · pays 1.1×
Confidence
Moderate
Incumbent Governor Tarcsio de Freitas maintains a significant lead in early polling while Kim Kataguiri lacks the broad coalition support required to challenge the frontrunners.
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