Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Market price history
Rolling 7-day window of market YES price with the OU fair-price range overlay.
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Market price
YES86¢ (86%)
NO14¢ (14%)
Latest refresh · prices in cents
Polymarket • Volume: $5.9K • Updated 17m agoCloses:
Polymarket · Politics
OU's Pick
NO at 14¢ · pays 7.1×
Price gap
Polymarket14¢
→OU's fair28¢
+14¢ underpriced · pays 7.1×
Confidence
Moderate
Texas has been dominated at the state level by the Republican Party for more than thirty years and current forecasts maintain a Republican advantage for the 2026 cycle.
Wide edge+14¢
Off market consensus
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